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Survey of Professional Forecasters : ウィキペディア英語版 | Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of the United States issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is the oldest such survey in the United States. The survey includes an "anxious index" that estimates the probability of a decline in real GDP.〔(【引用サイトリンク】The Anxious Index )〕 ==History==
The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.〔(【引用サイトリンク】Survey of Professional Forecasters )〕 In its early days (prior to the takeover by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) the survey was often referred to in the academic literature as the ASA-NBER survey.〔 In May 2008, it was announced that SPF would be adding an industry classification variable for its survey respondents, so that researchers could more easily determine how people's forecasts related to the industry they were from.
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